Naomi Osaka def. Aryna Sabalenka 6-2, 7(7)-6(2) — Wimbledon 2026 R16

Match recap

Naomi Osaka defeated Aryna Sabalenka 6-2, 7(7)-6(2) in the R16 of the Wimbledon 2026.

Given a 68% chance by the market and 74% by our model, Aryna Sabalenka never solved Naomi Osaka's return in a 6-2 7-6(2) Round of 16 exit at Wimbledon. Osaka converted 2 of 4 break points while the top seed went 0 for 2, and it snowballed early — breaks in games 3, 5 and 8 stacked the opener 6-2. From there Osaka held all 10 service games, winning 87% of first-serve points, and ran through the second-set tiebreak 7-2. The result flips a rivalry Sabalenka owned: she'd won all three meetings on record, including a French Open Round of 16 just five weeks earlier.

Profiles: Aryna Sabalenka · Naomi Osaka — Wimbledon 2026

Head-to-head

Aryna Sabalenka and Naomi Osaka have met 4 times, with Aryna Sabalenka leading the head-to-head 3–1.

• French Open 2026 R16 — Aryna Sabalenka won 7-5, 6-3
• Madrid Open 2026 R16 — Aryna Sabalenka won 6(1)-7(7), 6-3, 6-2
• Indian Wells 2026 R16 — Aryna Sabalenka won 6-2, 6-4