Elise Mertens def. Elena Rybakina 7(7)-6(4), 6-1 — Wimbledon 2026 R32

Match recap

Elise Mertens defeated Elena Rybakina 7(7)-6(4), 6-1 in the R32 of the Wimbledon 2026.

Five prior meetings, five Elena Rybakina wins — none on grass, and the market still priced her at 78% (85% by our model). Elise Mertens flipped it on return, converting 4 of 10 break points to Rybakina's 2 of 10 in a 7-6(4) 6-1 upset of the No. 2 seed at Wimbledon. After edging the opening tiebreak, Mertens broke in game 4 for 3-1 and again in game 6 for 5-1, while Rybakina went 0 of 4 on break chances in the second set. The favorite saved two match points but won just 33% of first-serve-return points all afternoon.

Profiles: Elise Mertens · Elena Rybakina — Wimbledon 2026

Head-to-head

Elise Mertens and Elena Rybakina have met 6 times, with Elena Rybakina leading the head-to-head 5–1.

• Australian Open 2026 R16 — Elena Rybakina won 6-1, 6-3
• Cincinnati Open 2025 R32 — Elena Rybakina won 4-6, 6-3, 7-5
• French Open 2024 R32 — Elena Rybakina won 6-4, 6-2
• Miami 2023 R16 — Elena Rybakina won 6-4, 6-3
• Miami Open 2023 R16 — Elena Rybakina won 6-4, 6-3