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Elise Mertens defeated Elena Rybakina 7(7)-6(4), 6-1 — Wimbledon 2026 R32.
Elise Mertens and Elena Rybakina: Elena Rybakina leads 5–1 across 6 recorded meetings.
Five prior meetings, five Elena Rybakina wins — none on grass, and the market still priced her at 78% (85% by our model). Elise Mertens flipped it on return, converting 4 of 10 break points to Rybakina's 2 of 10 in a 7-6(4) 6-1 upset of the No. 2 seed at Wimbledon. After edging the opening tiebreak, Mertens broke in game 4 for 3-1 and again in game 6 for 5-1, while Rybakina went 0 of 4 on break chances in the second set. The favorite saved two match points but won just 33% of first-serve-return points all afternoon.