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Naomi Osaka defeated Aryna Sabalenka 6-2, 7(7)-6(2) — Wimbledon 2026 R16.
Aryna Sabalenka and Naomi Osaka: Aryna Sabalenka leads 3–1 across 4 recorded meetings.
Given a 68% chance by the market and 74% by our model, Aryna Sabalenka never solved Naomi Osaka's return in a 6-2 7-6(2) Round of 16 exit at Wimbledon. Osaka converted 2 of 4 break points while the top seed went 0 for 2, and it snowballed early — breaks in games 3, 5 and 8 stacked the opener 6-2. From there Osaka held all 10 service games, winning 87% of first-serve points, and ran through the second-set tiebreak 7-2. The result flips a rivalry Sabalenka owned: she'd won all three meetings on record, including a French Open Round of 16 just five weeks earlier.