Title chances and round-by-round projections from our draw simulation, when available. These are model probabilities, not betting odds.
Elena Rybakina leads the China Open 2026 women's title odds at 18% in a Monte Carlo simulation of the 96-player field, ahead of Aryna Sabalenka at 16%, with 31 matches in the draw already completed — model odds, not betting lines.
| Player | Title odds | Reach SF | Reach F |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elena Rybakina | 18% | 44% | 28% |
| Aryna Sabalenka | 16% | 41% | 28% |
| Coco Gauff | 14% | 41% | 23% |
| Iga Swiatek | 10% | 32% | 18% |
| Linda Noskova | 8% | 30% | 16% |
| Karolina Muchova | 8% | 26% | 16% |
| Mirra Andreeva | 6% | 30% | 15% |
| Elina Svitolina | 5% | 20% | 10% |
| Naomi Osaka | 3% | 14% | 7% |
| Belinda Bencic | 3% | 14% | 6% |
| Iva Jovic | 2% | 11% | 5% |
| Diana Shnaider | 1% | 11% | 4% |
| Leylah Fernandez | <1% | 5% | 2% |
| Jasmine Paolini | <1% | 9% | 3% |
| Qinwen Zheng | <1% | 5% | 2% |
| Anastasia Potapova | <1% | 6% | 2% |
| Anna Kalinskaya | <1% | 4% | 1% |
| Nikola Bartunkova | <1% | 4% | 2% |
| Paula Badosa | <1% | 3% | <1% |
| Diane Parry | <1% | 4% | 1% |
| Elise Mertens | <1% | 3% | <1% |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | <1% | 4% | <1% |
| Sara Bejlek | <1% | 2% | <1% |
| Marie Bouzkova | <1% | 3% | <1% |
| Liudmila Samsonova | <1% | 3% | <1% |
| Elena Gabriela Ruse | <1% | 2% | <1% |
| Sonay Kartal | <1% | 2% | <1% |
| Maja Chwalinska | <1% | 2% | <1% |
| Peyton Stearns | <1% | 2% | <1% |
| Taylah Preston | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| Clara Tauson | <1% | 2% | <1% |
| Xinyu Wang | <1% | 1% | <1% |